August 28, 2008
Economy at a Glance, August 29, 2008
Regional housing strength shifts to the east
The regional housing market in Canada has altered considerably versus the pattern of the last several years. The strength so far this year has been in eastern Canada. New Brunswick (+19%), Ontario (+17%), Nova Scotia (+12%) and Newfoundland & Labrador (+12%) have all had greater percentage gains in starts than any province in the West. Saskatchewan (+8%) is the leader among western provinces and it is only fifth overall. Alberta (-25%) is in last place.
The shocker among the cities is Edmonton, at -48% in terms of percentage change in starts so far this year versus the same time period last year. Edmonton has been relatively weaker in singles (-69%) than in multiples (-22%), although both have adjusted downward dramatically. Also in Alberta, Calgary’s starts ( 10% overall) have maintained some momentum. Calgary has been particularly strong in multiples (+84%).
Toronto ( 25%) is the leader among the six largest cities, by population, in the country. That success has come thanks to multiples (+57%) as opposed to singles (-15%). As for the other three cities in the country with populations over one million, Ottawa-Gatineau (+13%), Vancouver (+11%) and Montréal (+5%) have all done a little better in multiples than in singles. The overall leader among all CMA’s is Barrie, Ontario (+99%) at almost exactly double last year’s pace.
For more articles by Alex Carrick on the Canadian and U.S. economies, visit his blog and Market Insights.
Percent Change in Year-to-Date Housing Starts – Ranking of Canadian Provinces (January–July 2008 vs January–July 2007)
Percent Change in Year-to-Date Housing Starts – Ranking of Canadian Cities (January–July 2008 vs January–July 2007)
*Canada’s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have core populations of 50,000 or more people.
Data source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (based on actuals rather than seasonally adjusted data).
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
